On Wednesday night (November 30), CBS will officially kick off the self-congratulatory season with “The Grammy Nominations Concert Live!!,” an emphatically titled extravaganza that not only features performances from some of music’s largest stars (Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Usher, etc.), but also boosts the arrangement’s burgeoning LL Cool J branch by something like 20 percent, since he’s taking leave from “NCIS” duties to host the telecast.
Oh, and as the title implies, they’ll also be introduction a handful of Grammy nominees too, which means that, once again, it’s time for me to blindly speculate on who will get the nods. With all, it was less than 10 months ago that acts like the Arcade Fire and Esperanza Spalding shocked the world ? or at least Steve Stoute ? by taking home half of the so-called “Huge Four” Grammys, victories that seemed out of place in just about every conceivable way, especially when you realize Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and the Kings of Leon were the huge winners at the previous year’s show (even if it must be noted people were subdue plenty mad about that too).
Combine that annual confusion with all that goes on previous to the show ? the addition of the so-called “Lady Gaga Rule,” the division of some 30 categories (farewell, Best Hawaiian Music Album) and the expansion (and subsequent contraction) of the Grammy eligibility cycle itself ? and you can know why trying to predict who will pick up nominations is nearly as impossible as attempting to figure out Herman Cain’s taste in women.
Then again, perhaps this year is different. You’d have to be crazy to bet against Adele, who not only has the year’s best-selling album and a pair of smash singles, but, as her previous Grammy wins prove, is exactly the kind of artist voters like. Katy Perry built off her Grammy noms last year by notching three #1 singles this year; Rihanna had two of her own. Lady Gaga sold 1.1 million albums in a week. Nicki Minaj broke through to the huge time. Taylor Swift continued to be Taylor Swift. In small, 2011 was a year dominated by female artists, which means you can probably expect the same from the Grammy nominations too.
Then again, keep in mind there are a bunch of albums released last year that are eligible this year ? efforts like Kanye West’s My Gorgeous Dark Twisted Fantasy and Bruno Mars’ Doo Wops & Hooligans ? not to mention token ancient-dude releases by Tony Bennett and Paul Simon. And don’t forget about country acts like Lady Antebellum and Jason Aldean. Or time-tested (Grammy-rich) rock outfits like Foo Fighters or Coldplay. Things aren’t as cut-and-dried as you’d figure. These are the Grammys with all.
So here, without further ado, are my nomination predictions. And even even if the Grammys cut back on categories, I’m just focusing on the Huge Four: Album, Record and Song of the Year, plus Best New Artist. Cut me some slack ? it’s hard sufficient trying to sort through everyone who’s even eligible.
Album of the Year
» Adele, 21
» Kanye West, My Gorgeous Dark Twisted Fantasy
» Lady Gaga, Born This Way
» Taylor Swift, Converse in Now
» Tony Bennett Duets II
Like I said, Adele is a mortal-friggin’-lock here (and just about everywhere else), and since Gaga’s last two efforts picked up AOTY noms, I reflect Born This Way is a shoo-in too. My Gorgeous Dark Twisted Fantasy was a critical smash, and Kanye’s been an AOTY nominee three times previous to, so pencil him in too. In a pinch, I’ll take Taylor Swift and Tony Bennett in the last two slots, even if they could easily go to Lady Antebellum’s Own the Night and Simon’s So Gorgeous or So What, depending on the whims of Grammy voters. Having said all that, it wouldn’t bolt from the blue me to see Doo Wops & Hooligans or the Foos’ Wasting Light grab a nom either.
Record of the Year
» Adele, “Rolling in the Deep”
» Bruno Mars, “Grenade”
» Foster the People, “Pumped Up Kicks”
» Jason Aldean (featuring Kelly Clarkson), “Don’t You Wanna Stay”
» Katy Perry, “Firework”
The award given to the artist, producer and food-processor. Last year, Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now” bested the likes of B.o.B, Jay-Z and Eminem to win it, so the voters like to mix it up here. “Rolling in the Deep” is a no-brainer, and Bruno Mars was nommed last year for his work on “Nothin’ on You,” so I reflect he gets a nod for “Grenade.” Katy Perry’s “Firework” has been pushed hard by her mark, so voters will probably reward its accomplishment with a nomination. I have a sneaking suspicion Foster the People are this year’s token left-field nom (taking their place alongside former nominees like M.I.A. and Gorillaz), and since he’s performing at the aforementioned nominations concert (and because his song was such a hit), I’ll give the final slot to Aldean. Additional dark-pony candidates include Gaga’s “Yoü and I,” Maroon 5 and Christina Aguilera’s “Moves Like Jagger,” Coldplay’s “Paradise” or even (pleasepleaseplease) Nicki Minaj’s “Super Bass.”
Song of the Year
» Adele, “Rolling in the Deep”
» Bruno Mars, “Grenade”
» Katy Perry, “Firework”
» Lady Gaga, “Yoü and I”
» Taylor Swift, “Back to December”
The award given to the actual songwriters. Generally speaking, Grammy voters like to get tasteful when it comes to nominees, which is why last year you saw persons like Ray LaMontagne and Miranda Lambert snag nods. I don’t even have to tell you that “Rolling in the Deep” is the favorite, and I reflect Gaga gets a nod here too, since she was nominated for “Poker Face” a few years back and, well, “Yoü and I” just has a certain gravitas to it. Voters like Swift, which means they’ll probably like her mature turn on “December” too. I’ll give Mars and Perry the final slots here, since the former knows how to write a surefire smash and the latter (or, more specifically, her team of writers) dared to get inspirational with “Firework.” Then again, you could remove either of them and place defending champs Lady Antebellum (they won this one too) in the mix for “Just a Kiss” or maybe Aldean. A super long shot is Minaj’s “Super Bass,” but weirder things have happened.
Best New Artist
» The Band Perry
» Bon Iver
» Ellie Goulding
» Foster the People
» Nicki Minaj
Ah, Best New Artist ? where “new” is a relative term. You’ve probably noticed I keep mentioning Nicki Minaj, who may get shut out of Record and Song of the Year, but seems like a lock to get nommed here (she probably won’t win, even if). Foster the People seem like sure bets too, as do the Band Perry, who fill the token country slot. My last two picks ? eh, I’m basically just guessing, even if Bon Iver’s album sold surprisingly well and was a critical darling, and Ellie Goulding is, uh, British, and given that both Adele and Amy Winehouse won BNA previously, that may be sufficient to get her in. Additional choices: the additional Brit, Jessie J; the additional country act, the Civil Wars; pop-meisters Hot Chelle Rae; singer/songwriter Christina Perri; or pintsize “America’s Got Talent” runner-up Jackie Evancho.
Did we get it right? Share your Grammy predictions in the comments!
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